Visiting here is bringing you the knowledge of how your Association operates to support and protect your best interests and connect you to the top resources and expertise in the key areas of concern that could affect your rights and reasonable enjoyment of property. Like a family we are here to stand by you and fight adversities that will in turn make us all stronger and closer.
WE SHALL NEVER SURRENDER.
There is little doubt that the current housing crisis is global; thus the underlying causes must logically relate to world-wide variables. Too often local governments will take simplistic approaches that are not well thought- out and focus policy and actions on regional symptoms. These band aids may have short-term benefits for a few folks and political ambitions, but will fail terribly at addressing the key long-term variables behind the crisis. Consequently, the crisis will never be resolved using short-sighted measures based on any self-serving political agenda with no basis in mathematics or evidence-based science.
So what are some of these key global variables? Well, here is a summary of critical global factors that can be tied to the fact that the planet is reaching its limits to growth. Meaning that we have reached the tipping point that cannot be reversed with local band aid approaches. If we do not address these global factors - then the outlook for global society beyond a few more years is highly speculative, at best.
As a consequence of this variable equation, there are 50 countries now facing severe economic difficulties breeding social unrest and shortages of living essentials. As they collapse the interdependent global economy will add more countries to the list as both supply chains and currencies disappear from existence. Regional conflicts will therefore run the risk of quickly spreading as nations become desperate. to maintain civil order.
What is clear and self-evident - local solutions have no chance of working and a coordinated global effort is promptly needed to act upon the equation of factors highlighted or we may all suffer the dire consequences as the resource pie shrinks against an ever-increasing population demand for more living essentials.
Put simply, the numbers, math, sciences and physical planetary constraints just don't work...
Executive Committee
December 3, 2020
They could just evict us’: the tenants hit by huge hikes in UK rents
From Manchester to London, three people tell of stress, fear and eviction as cost of private renting rockets
£8,000 a year; £300 a month; 60%. These are just some of the rent rises demanded from private tenants as winter approaches. The alternative can be eviction, sofa surfing or scrambling in an overheated market for another place. With homelessness the fear, it is extremely stressful.
The already expensive housing markets of London and the south-east are worst affected but it is a national problem. In Manchester Clara Graziani, 27, a customer services worker, was paying £695 a month on a city centre flat until she was served with an eviction notice in September. Her landlord used the “no fault eviction” process the government has repeatedly pledged to abolish, but still hasn’t. Graziani had agreed to pay 8% extra, but then, without explanation, she was evicted.
PRICES WILL JUST KEEP RISING IN UK
“They didn’t have to give a reason,” she said. “I was really stressed about the situation.”
An estate agent let slip the landlord’s plan was in fact to raise the rent to £895 – a 29% hike – and get someone else in.
“It was really, really hard to find somewhere else,” Graziani said. “When you see a flat on Rightmove, it could be deleted in two minutes because someone paid a holding deposit.” Eventually she paid a deposit on a flat without seeing it in person.
When she finally got in “it smelled a bit of damp in a couple of rooms”, she said.
Ygerne Price-Davies, 24, a domestic abuse worker who shares a rented home in south London, is facing eviction unless she and her housemates agree to a 13% rent increase.
Toronto Is The Biggest Real Estate Bubble In The World, Vancouver 6th: UBS
A Swiss mega bank is warning the global credit bubble has produced a global real estate bubble. UBS published its 2022 Global Real Estate Bubble Index this week, and Toronto took the top spot. Vancouver remains in the Top 10, with the bank noting all of Canada is generally frothy. The recent price growth is attributed by a rapid expansion in credit, and that won’t last. As the economy slows, the last pillar holding up the market is starting to weaken.
Global Real Estate Prices Are Bubbly, Especially In Credit Bubbles
Global real estate prices are growing at one of the fastest rates in history. UBS analysts found prices in the 25 markets tracked for bubble risk have increased an average of 10% over the past year. It was the strongest increase since 2007, during the last global housing bubble.
An accompanying surge in mortgage credit makes this an even larger concern. It’s the second year it was observed in the cities they track, occurring in virtually all markets. Soaring credit growth is typical of a real estate bubble.
“The lending boom was conspicuously strong in the Middle East, the US, Canada, and Australia,” said UBS. “Since the pandemic we observe an increase in aggregate household debt relative to economic output in many of the analyzed economies.”
EXPECT WORST HOUSING CRASH EVER - BANK'S AT RISK
Global Real Estate Prices Are Falling, Last Pillar of Support Is Weak
UBS explicitly mentions they don’t state whether or not a correction is coming, but they did highlight a concern. As interest rates climb, the economy slows, and home sales fall — there’s only one thing propping up the market, and that’s labor.
It doesn’t matter which country you’re looking at, but global labor is suddenly short right across the world. “The robust labor market therefore remains the last pillar of support for the owner-occupied housing market in most cities,” wrote the bank.
They add, “With a deterioration of economic conditions, this too is at risk of faltering. Indeed, we are witnessing the global owner-occupied housing boom finally under pressure, and in a majority of the highly-valued cities, significant price correction”
NO JOKE: BUT POSSIBLY A THOUSND TIMES WORSE THAN 2008
TORONTO AND VANCOUVER POSITIONED TO LEAD HUGE VALUATION CRASH
Toronto and Vancouver Real Estate Are Two of The Biggest Bubbles In The World
The Canadian real estate bubble dominated the list, with two cities in the top 10 — only matched by Germany. Toronto pushed higher, to take the top spot of the world’s largest real estate bubble. Vancouver held on to sixth place, where it was found in last year’s report.
The bank warns the shortage narrative may have applied in the past, but this isn’t quite the case now. “The housing boom has become more of a countrywide phenomenon and is therefore hardly driven by a shortage of construction,” he said.
BMO recently made a similar assessment in an interview with us. The bank’s senior economist said strong fundamentals supported the market, until the recent low rate boom hit. Home prices had surged far in excess of any fundamental support, and the bank now expects a significant correction to balance this excess.
BUFFET WARNS THIS WILL BE WORSE THAN GREAT DEPRESSION
What is perfectly clear from this analysis is that none of the Central Banks can fix the real economy with currencies or economic policies because the planet is now overwhelmed by too many people and rapidly exhausting resources - meaning applying their final tool kit of financial shenanigans is going to be completely fruitless.
When thathappens then the global economy will collapse; just as it is currently doing in specific developing and developed countries, it will no longer be possible to operate our complex global society.
DYNAMICS OF TRAGIC FAILURE
Block Chain, FinTech, EVs, nor AI hold any promise to solve our real physical predicament outside of providing conceptual absurdities by either Hollywood or Commercial lunacy to sell.
Projections therefore about what happens next should only be viewed as pure speculation or utter poppycock because there are both infinite permutations and outcomes possible. Nonetheless, it is highly likely that society is approaching the end of days similar to historical complex civilizations mentioned in the above linked video presentation by Joseph Tainter .
Let's face it, you cannot eat any form of physical (gold) or abstract currency (bitcoin, dollars etc.) - for as science has long professed
The major issue is that money, by itself, cannot operate the economy, because we cannot eat money. Any model of the economy must include energy and other resources. In a finite world, these resources tend to deplete. Also, human population tends to grow. At some point, not enough goods and services are produced for the growing population.
Time and time again, financial approaches have worked to fix economic problems. Raising interest rates has acted to slow the economy and lowering them has acted to speed up the economy. Governments overspending their incomes also acts to push the economy ahead; doing the reverse seems to slow economies down.
What could possibly go wrong? The issue is a physics problem. The economy doesn’t run simply on money and debt. It operates on resources of many kinds, including energy-related resources. As the population grows, the need for energy-related resources grows. The bottleneck that occurs is something that is hard to see in advance; it is an affordability bottleneck.
For a very long time, financial manipulations have been able to adjust affordability in a way that is optimal for most players. At some point, resources, especially energy resources, get stretched too thin, relative to the rising population and all the commitments that have been made, such as pension commitments. As a result, there is no way for the quantity of goods and services produced to grow sufficiently to match the promises that the financial system has made. This is the real bottleneck that the world economy reaches.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE CLEARLY ON VERGE OF COLLAPSE
I believe that we are closely approaching this bottleneck today. I recently gave a talk to a group of European officials at the 2nd Luxembourg Strategy Conference, discussing the issue from the European point of view. Europeans seem to be especially vulnerable because Europe, with its early entry into the Industrial Revolution, substantially depleted its fossil fuel resources many years ago. The topic I was asked to discuss was, “Energy: The interconnection of energy limits and the economy and what this means for the future.”
In this post, I write about this presentation.
Slide 3
TOO MANY PEOPLE, TOO LITTLE FOOD
NOT GOOD
The major issue is that money, by itself, cannot operate the economy, becausewe cannot eat money. Any model of the economy must include energy and other resources. In a finite world, these resources tend to deplete. Also, human population tends to grow. At some point, not enough goods and services are produced for the growing population.
EUROPE & OTHERS IN ECONOMIC HELL
WE'RE NEXT
I believe that the major reason we have not been told about how the economy really works is because it would simply be too disturbing to understand the real situation. If today’s economy is dependent on finite fossil fuel supplies, it becomes clear that, at some point, these will run short. Then the world economy is likely to face a very difficult time.
A secondary reason for the confusion about how the economy operates is too much specialization by researchers studying the issue. Physicists (who are concerned about energy) don’t study economics; politicians and economists don’t study physics. As a result, neither group has a very broad understanding of the situation.
I am an actuary. I come from a different perspective: Will physical resources be adequate to meet financial promises being made? I have had the privilege of learning a little from both economic and physics sides of the discussion. I have also learned about the issue from a historical perspective.
