HISTORIC #HOUSING #CRISIS AFFECTING PEOPLES' #HEALTH AND LIFE

 

Housing Breaks People’s Brains

Supply skepticism and shortage denialism are pushing against the actual solution to the housing crisis: building enough homes.

By Jerusalem Demsas

anyone who’s been in a dumb recurring fight knows that the entire problem could be cleared up if everyone could just agree on exactly what was said or done. But you can’t, so you end up stuck in a cycle of relitigation. Housing-policy discussions are like that. They descend into crushing bickering because even the basic facts are up for debate.

The most basic fact about the housing crisis is the supply shortage. Yet many people deny this reality. Before I get to the veritable library of studies, our personal experiences compel us to recognize that housing scarcity is all around us. The most dire signs of a shortage are when even rich people struggle to find homes. Viral clips of hundreds of yuppies lining up to tour a single Manhattan apartment or stories of real-estate agents acting as bouncers at open houses to keep things orderly—these vivid examples demonstrate that demand has far outstripped supply.

HOUSING ND MENTAL HEALTH

'TORONTO NEEDS MORE HOUSING THAN ANYONE CAN IMAGINE'

- Woodgreen Tenants' Association

Once you accept the existence of a housing shortage, the obvious policy response is to build a bunch of homes. Research looking at San Francisco, New York, Boston, and 52,000 residents across 12 U.S. metropolitan areas have all found that new housing brings down prices. This research makes intuitive sense: If new housing is built, most of the people who move in first vacate other units. Those units then become available to newcomers, and so on. Solving a supply problem is of course harder than making the number of homes equal the number of people—different people want different sorts of homes—but the fundamental point is that we need more homes near good jobs and schools, and that give people access to the communities and amenities that make life more enjoyable.

Despite the avalanche of agreement from experts, the general public still doubts cause and effect. A new study from a trio of professors at the University of California (Clayton Nall, Chris Elmendorf, and Stan Oklobdzija) reveals that shortage denialism is not the only missing “shared fact” plaguing housing discourse. The researchers ran two nationwide surveys of urban and suburban residents and found that 30 to 40 percent of Americans believe, “contrary to basic economic theory and robust empirical evidence,” that if a lot of new housing were built in their region, then rents and home prices would rise. This posture is referred to as “supply skepticism.”

HOUSING CRISIS: DO NOT FORGET THE IMPACT ON CHILDRENS' HEALTH

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#WORST DAY IN #HUMAN HISTORY AS #POPULATION REACHES 8 #BILLION - HERE'S WHY!

EDITOR'S NOTE

Last week the population of the planet surpassed eight billion people thereby doubling in number over the past fifty years. As a consequence we have grown the ecological, climate, resources, economic and agricultural food impacts by similar degrees. Consider for example, oil and natural gas that have expected reserves of 47 and 53 years, respectively, based on current global per capita consumption. So what happens when we double the population over the next fifty years?

Without factoring in the laws of diminishing returns these reserves may only last 25 years or less. Then what? Society will have no dependable sources of energy - as fossil fuels now provide more than 80 percent of the global energy needs and there are no practical alternatives. Renewable energy sources cannot meet the needs or replace them because they are too intermittent and have storage limitations. Moreover, they negatively affect the biosphere and will use up the precious arable land needed to feed the billions of new and hungry mouths.

In the final analysis, if there is any hope for a sustainable human society we need to stop doubling the population every 5o years, and learn how to Degrowth economic activity and contract population levels. 

Otherwise, we will be joining those other species in  the Sixth Extinction Hall of Shame in fairly short order.

Executive Committee

November 25,2022

 

Richard Heinberg

November 21, 2022

The Final Doubling

THE SIXTH EXTINCTION?

Politicians and economists talk glowingly about growth. They want our cities and GDP to grow. Jobs, profits, companies, and industries all should grow; if they don’t, there’s something wrong, and we must identify the problem and fix it. Yet few discuss doubling time, even though it’s an essential concept for understanding growth.

Doubling time helps us grasp the physical meaning of growth—which otherwise appears as an innocuous-looking number denoting the annual rate of change. At 1 percent annual growth, any given quantity doubles in about 70 years; at 2 percent growth, in 35 years; at 7 percent, in 10 years, and so on. Just divide 70 by the annual growth rate and you’ll get a good sense of doubling time. (Why 70? It’s approximately the natural logarithm of 2. But you don’t need to know higher math to do useful doubling-time calculations.)

REAL IMPACT OF EXPONENTIALS POPULATION AND ENERGY

Here’s why failure to think in terms of doubling time gets us into trouble. Most economists seem to believe that a 2 to 3 percent annual rate of growth for economies is healthy and normal. But that implies a doubling time of roughly 25 years. When an economy grows, it uses more physical materials—everything from trees to titanium. Indeed, the global economy has doubled in size in the last quarter-century, and so has total worldwide extraction of materials. Since 1997 we have used over half the non-renewable resources extracted since the origin of humans.

As the economy grows, it also puts out more waste. In the last 25 years, the amount of solid waste produced globally has soared from roughly 3 million tons per day to about 6 million tons per day.

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OVERPOPULATION, ENERGY, CLIMATE

COLLAPSE

#Inspirational #Wisdom #Quotes - November 22, 2022

 

I was thinking about how people seem to read the Bible a whole lot more as they get older; then it dawned on me - they're cramming for their final exam.

George Carlin

Inspirational Wisdom Quotes

 March 31, 2022

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On-Stage Performance- Just Too Funny

x

 

INVISIBLE #ENERGY #SHORTAGES HIDE HUGE #ECONOMIC #CRISIS AHEAD

 

Our Finite World

Exploring how oil limits affect the economy

Today’s Energy Crisis Is Very Different from the Energy Crisis of 2005

by Gail Tverberg

Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, ramping up its demand for all kinds of fossil fuels. There was also a bubble in the US housing market, brought on by low interest rates and loose underwriting standards.

ENERGY KEY TO SUSTAINING CIVILIZATION

Figure 1. World primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The problem in 2005, as now, was inflation in energy costs that was feeding through to inflation in general. Inflation in food prices was especially a problem. The Federal Reserve chose to fix the problem by raising the Federal Funds interest rate from 1.00% to 5.25% between June 30, 2004 and June 30, 2006.

Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different. The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.

The Federal Reserve seems to be using a similar interest rate approach now, in very different circumstances. In this post, I will try to explain why I don’t think that this approach will produce the desired outcome.

EXPONENTIAL POULATION GROWTH WILL EXHAUST ENERGY RESOURCES

IS HUMANITY SUSTAINABLE?

KEY TAKEAWAYS

[1] The 2004 to 2006 interest rate hikes didn’t lead to lower oil prices until after July 2008.

[2] The purpose of the US Federal reserve raising target interest rates was to flatten the growth rate of the world economy. Looking back at Figure 1, the growth in energy consumption per capita was much lower after the Great Recession. I doubt that now in 2022, we want even lower growth (really, more shrinkage) in energy consumption per capita for future years.*

[3] While the growth rate in energy consumption per capita was much lower after 2008, the price of crude oil quickly bounced back to over $120 per barrel in inflation-adjusted prices in the 2011-2013 time frame.

[4] High prices in the 2006 to 2013 period allowed the rise of unconventional oil production. These high oil prices also helped keep conventional oil production from falling after 2005.

[5] A better way of looking at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis because the world’s crude oil needs depend on world population.

[6] Unconventional oil, if analyzed by itself, seems to be quite price sensitive. If politicians everywhere want to hold oil prices down, the world cannot count on extracting very much of the huge amount of unconventional oil resources that seem to be available.

[7] Figure 1 at the beginning of this post indicated falling energy consumption per capita. This problem extends to more than oil. On a per capita basis, both coal and nuclear energy consumption are falling.

[8] The world seems to be at a difficult time now because we don’t have any good options for fixing our falling energy consumption per capita problem, without greatly reducing world population. The two choices that seem to be available both seem to be far higher-priced than is feasible.

[9] Conclusion. Figure 1 seems to imply that the world economy is headed for troubled times ahead.

TOP BILLIONAIRE INVESTOR NOT POSITIVE ABOUT FUTURE

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#ONTARIO #RENTERS FACE HISTORIC #FOOD CRISIS AS LANDLORD #GREED ESCULATES

 

A new poll shows the majority of Ontario renters are having to choose between food and paying their rents.

 When it comes to housing affordability, this province is on fire.

Advocacy Centre for Tenants Ontario

With a provincial election just days away, the housing crisis is top of mind for many. With each passing month, rental rates are soaring across the province. Compared just to this time last year, average rents for a 1-bedroom unit have increased almost 13% in Toronto, 15% in Burlington, 12% in Guelph, and almost 10% in Hamilton. Rents have risen in a province that already has some of the highest in the country.

Decades of austerity driven policy are forcing renters across Ontario to continuously try to make do with less. Wages, of course, have not kept pace with rising costs of living. A minimum wage of $15/hour still lags behind what Ontarians need to live. Experts have demonstrated a living wage should be much higher than that – in Toronto, for example, a living wage is $22.08/hr.

IS FOOD INSECURITY IN ONTARIO NOW A CRISIS?

Some may blame the dire affordability crisis in Ontario solely on the pandemic. However, rental costs had been on the rise before the pandemic, just as wages had failed to keep up. The pandemic exacerbated the crisis, but it did not create it. What’s more, the pandemic has had widely differing impacts depending on wealth. The pandemic itself has been very, very kind to the most wealthy among us. A new report from OxFam International has found that “billionaires have seen their fortunes increase as much in 24 months as they did in 23 years,” and “the combined crises of COVID-19, rising inequality, and rising food prices could push as many as 263 million people into extreme poverty in 2022, reversing decades of progress. This is the equivalent of one million people every 33 hours.”

What does this global money grab look like in the context of Ontario?

Ordinary Ontarians are the ones being sacrificed in the name of profit as the financialization of housing continues – and renters are feeling the impacts most of all.

ACTO commissioned EKOS to conduct a province-wide poll of Ontario renters this month. We now have the results of the poll, and the findings are stark. Renters are being squeezed in an extreme affordability crisis that affects them in every single part of their lives, and very little is being done to help them.

No one, anywhere, should have to choose between food and shelter. And yet in Ontario, that’s exactly what we’re seeing – 60% of renters said they have had to cut back on food to afford their rents. 74% had to cut back on their other spending to afford their rents.

PERFECT STORM:

FOOD AND HOUSING CRISIS, PLUS RISING INFLATION

These soaring rental rates are pushing more people with lower incomes into very precarious financial situations. 65% of low-income renters would not be able to pay their rent over the next 3 months without taking on debt, should they lose their income.

Understanding poverty is not just about measuring household income – it means we also have to look at how much people can save and how long they can cover their basic costs if they were to lose their incomes. Anyone who pays 50% or more of their income towards their shelter is at a very high risk of becoming homeless. Ontario renters are balancing on a knife’s edge to stay housed.

Affordable options for renters are dwindling

Renters are struggling to stay in their communities. 1 in 3 renters have recently considered moving to a different municipality due to an increase of rental costs. This means uprooting them, their families, possibly their jobs – every part of their life just to find a home they can afford. Even for people who are considering sacrificing so much are discovering that rents remain unaffordable almost everywhere, and competition for what’s available remains fierce. Their options for affordable, safe and secure housing dwindle day-by-day.

The solutions are multi-faceted, but one place to start is bringing back real rent control

We can’t afford to wait. Interventions to make housing more affordable should have been made years ago. Focusing on supply-side solutions won’t do enough, quickly enough, to stop the free-fall into poverty and increased risk of homelessness people are facing. One thing that the province can do overnight is instate real rent control in this province. This means scrapping the failed 2018 exemption for rent control on new builds, and getting rid of the long-standing policy of vacancy decontrol.

NOT GOOD: AS FOOD BANKS RUNNING SHORT

Eliminating vacancy decontrol is a popular idea among renters. Over 80% of Ontario tenants believe there should be a limit to the amount landlords can increase the rent for a unit when it becomes vacant. We agree.

We encourage all Ontarians to reflect on their housing priorities, and look closely at each provincial party to see what’s on the table in this election. The stakes for renters could not be higher.

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#Inspirational #Wisdom #Quotes - November 12, 2022

 

“False face must hide what the false

 heart

 doth know.”

William Shakespeare

Inspirational Wisdom Quotes

 November 12, 2022

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#TORONTO 31% #RENT INCREASES DRIVE #TENANTS INTO #DEBT - EXPECT MORE SOCIAL UNREST

 

Toronto Rent Prices Have Now Risen 31 Per Cent Over The Last year: Report

WATCH CTV NEWS CAST

The average list price for a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto rose by more than six per cent in September as prospective tenants continued to face a sustained increase in rents, a new report suggests.

The report, prepared by Rentals.ca and Bullpen Research & Consulting, indicates that the average monthly asking price for a one-bedroom unit in Toronto reached $2,474 in September while the asking price for two-bedroom units hit $3,361.

Asking prices for one-bedroom rentals in the city have now shot up 27.5 per cent year-over-year, after bottoming out earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic.

THE WORST IS YET TO COME

OTOS

Two-bedroom apartments are up 27.7 per cent year-over-year but saw a more modest 2.9 per cent month-over-month increase in September.

In a news release, Bullpen Research & Consulting President Ben Myers said that part of the increase “is attributable to larger units on the market, and high-end building completions adding expensive listings.”

But he said that an increase in demand is also pushing rents higher, even as the housing market undergoes a significant correction.

“Rental demand has increased significantly with the continued interest rate hikes, falling ownership house prices, and changing post-pandemic preferences,” he said.

Rent prices in Toronto declined by 11 per cent annually in May 2021 and six per cent annually in May 2020 as many people left the city in search of more space during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But asking prices have been rising steadily in recent months, particularly in urban centres.

SOARING RENTS BRING EMOTIONAL/HEALTH PROBLEMS 

The latest data released by Rentals.ca and Bullpen Research & Consulting suggests that the average asking price across all rental types in Canada last month was up more than 15 per cent year-over year.

Vancouver had the highest average rent price at $3,225 per month, followed by Toronto at $2,855.

The average rent across Ontario was up 18.4 per cent year-over-year to $2,451 per month.

Looking specifically at condominiums, the average rental asking price in Toronto was $2,988 in September. It had previously dropped to a recent low of $2,053 in February, 2021.

“Many of the same factors that have been affecting rental demand are still influencing the market in September. Interest rate increases are damaging ownership affordability and keeping prospective buyers in the rental market. Secondly, a softening ownership market, with forecasts for further declines are keeping prospective buyers on the sidelines, waiting for the market to bottom out,” the report states.

While the demand for rentals is expected to remain elevated, the report does point out that the page views per listing in September declined for the first time in months. 

The authors also noted that the rental market is seasonal, with demand often higher in the fall.

IN THE LAST ANALYSIS

DON'T TRUST ANY POLITICIANS

#BOYCOTT #RIOCAN - IMPOSING #PREDATORY #RENT INCREASES ON VULNERABLE #TENANTS

 

Residents Of Newly-Built Toronto Building Are Outraged  Over Massive Rent Increases

RIOCAN COMES A CALLING

News that Ontario landlords would be able to raise rents by as much as 2.5 per cent per year had tenants outraged earlier in 2022, but residents of one Toronto building have it much worse, and are now facing double-digit rent increases.

CRIMINAL LANDLORDS USE ALGORITHMNS

Multiple residents of the new "Litho" purpose-built rental building at Dupont and Christie have reached out to blogTO with concerns about sharp rental rate increases. Property owner RioCan Living justifies the rent increases as necessary adjustments "to better reflect current market conditions."

One resident, who prefers to be identified by just his first name, Matt, tells blogTO, "I live in a new purpose-built rental owned by RioCan at Christie and Dupont. They have recently sent out lease renewals, and are increasing rent by 13.4 per cent and are not open to negotiation."

Matt shared a photo of a document from management offering him the choice to renew his lease in November for a full year with an eight per cent rent increase to $2,424.60 per month, or a month-to-month rate of $2,546 — a full 13.4 per cent higher than his current rent.

Matt says that while he knew there was no rent control upon signing his lease, he "never expected to face an increase 10 times the size of a rent-controlled building." 

"I tried negotiating a slightly lower increase for three months to have time to find a more affordable living arrangement, but each time management at RioCan declined. That's the problem with these large corporations as landlords, there is no compassion and they only care about the bottom line." 

"I don't know how this is sustainable. If they keep increasing rents this much every year, a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto is going to cost over $4,000/month in less than five years. Everyone I've spoken to on my floor is moving out due to the increases."

Another resident reached out with a similar story, calling the massive rent increases "a legal loophole, as we are not covered by Residential Tenancies Act."

A representative of RioCan Living tells blogTO that "Litho is one of a select group of [our] properties in Toronto that opened at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, and as such, the property was leasing units at rates lower than market rents."

FINANCE MINISTER BLAMES IMMIGRATION FOR HOUSING CRISIS

"The combined impact of Covid-19 and inflation have necessitated rate adjustments to better reflect current market conditions. All leases at the property remain at or below market."

The rental company "acknowledges the affordability issues facing all Canadians and the urgent need to alleviate supply constraints in Canada's major markets," and states that it has "contributed close to 1,000 new residential rental units in Canada's major markets over the last 12 months."

While the rates asked by RioCan are much higher than Ontario's 2022 rent increase guideline of 1.2 per cent per year, or 2023's 2.5 per cent annually, this provincial limitation does not apply to newer rental units occupied for the first time after November 15, 2018.

HERE'S WHERE YOU WILL BE LIVING IN 5 YEARS

Rollbacks to rent control came soon after Doug Ford's Ontario PC Party took Queen's Park in 2018, leaving residents of new-build rental properties subject to staggering rent increases.

The takeaway for renters here is that, while a new building may offer classy amenities and a great overall resident experience, if it was first-occupied after that 2018 date, you might end up having the rug pulled out from under your feet when the rent skyrockets.

MAYBE WE SHOULD BLAME FASCIST ONTARIO POLICIES? 

MR PREMIER WHAT DO YOU THINK?